A coming U.S. renaissance -- and an oil price crash: Citibank's Ed Morse unloads a monster, 92-page report forecasting no less than a new American Industrial Revolution. This economic resurgence is carried on the back of low natural gas prices as far as the eye can see (pictured above, hydraulic fracturing in Pennsylvania), in addition to a shale-oil, oil-sands, deepwater-oil boom that makes the U.S. "the new Middle East." In line with other top analysts, notably Deutsche Bank, Morse forecasts a tight global market in the next few years, notwithstanding the U.S. abundance, with the suggestion that prices will be high as well. But nirvana will arrive by the end of the decade with the convergence of U.S. oil abundance and a burst of production from west and east Africa, the Gulf of Mexico, India and the Caspian Sea. By the 2020s, we will see maximum oil prices of $85 a barrel, Morse writes in a teaser at the Wall Street Journal. There are of course potential geopolitical consequences, Morse writes:
It is unclear what the political consequences of this might be in terms of American attitudes to continuing to play the various roles adopted since World War II -- guarantor of supply lanes globally, protector of main producer countries in the Middle East and elsewhere. A U.S. economy that is less vulnerable to oil disruptions, less dependent on oil imports and supportive of a stronger currency will inevitably play a central role globally. But with such a turnaround in its energy dependence, it is questionable how arduously the U.S. government might want to play those traditional roles.
I have noted previously that some of us are suffering whiplash since just a few months ago the conventional wisdom was energy scarcity. One is inclined toward caution regarding the new narrative of abundance, such as we see in the lead story today in the New York Times, where Clifford Krauss and Eric Lipton depict a future of "independence from foreign energy sources." Morse, the dean of oil analysts, must be taken seriously. Yet the forecast oil bonanza is still largely on paper -- the crude is not pumping through the country's petro-arteries. What if oil prices drop? Will the economics still support the type of drilling described? I urge continued and watchful caution.
Go to the Jump for more on the energy boom and the rest of the Wrap.
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Steve LeVine is the author of The Oil and the Glory and a longtime foreign correspondent.