Whatever happens, an enduring U.S. naval fleet: Evidence is mounting that the U.S. will maintain its global naval footprint regardless of any shift in energy or geopolitics: Despite the shrinkage or disappearance of primary raisons d'etre, the Navy obtains other rationales for its current size. Here at FP, Robert Farley suggests that the Obama Administration regards the Navy as an organic tool for sustaining long-term geostrategic balance with China (pictured above, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, docked in Hong Kong.). That explains the administration's shift of U.S. naval attention to Asia.

But what about the Carter Doctrine, under which the U.S. treats the Persian Gulf as covetously as if it were located off U.S. shores. Given the fresh belief that the U.S. is on the verge of virtual oil-independence, isn't this the moment that some folks have long awaited -- when the U.S. no longer must protect Saudi Arabia, and can save trillions of dollars in protective military spending underlying oil prices? The answer is no, says retired Gen. Chuck Wald, former deputy commander of the U.S. European Command. "If it had not been for oil and our dependence on oil, which started with Churchill, we would still feel a need to have a presence in the Middle East -- because of Israel," Wald told me. He said:

It is not an ‘either-or' situation, the way that some people say, that if it were not for oil we wouldn't have to worry about defending the sea lanes and all that. If you really look at one of the most interesting threats to sea lanes, it is the pirates off the coast of east Africa, and it has nothing to do with oil. ... [Whatever happens with oil] we are still going to have a growing interdependency based on commerce. As I used to say when I taught at the National War College, when the world has a problem with things globally, they like to call 1-800-USNavy.

I spoke with Wald by phone prior to his appearance at a Deloitte-sponsored event in Washington titled, "The Realities of Energy Security through Supply Independence." He feels strongly that the U.S. needs to build up energy self-sufficiency in order to have a more independent foreign policy. But he simply doesn't think that, while becoming more independent, the U.S. role abroad will lessen. Iran, Wald said, "is playing us like a drum right now from the standpoint of foreign policy based on the pressure they can put on us on the concern about [oil supply] disruption -- this is a bad situation we put ourselves in." Wald:

We are in a situation that doesn't get any better, even though we are [headed toward] an interestingly bright future energy-wise because of fracking and potential imports from Canada and potential technology breakthroughs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Go to the Jump for more of the Wrap.

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