Russian leader Vladimir Putin urges an end to absurdist doubt regarding his political longevity, and a focus on reality -- such as the triumphant energy deals with which he closed out 2011. Putin is referring to a surprising, double-flanking maneuver in Turkey and Ukraine that gives Russia the apparent advantage in the late stages of a contest for energy market -- and, some fear, geopolitical -- domination in Europe. But Putin's tenor also suggests a decided shift to the past in Russia's relationship with the world -- the "reset" of relations with the U.S. is over, writes the Financial Times' Charles Clover. Putin -- whose administration last week issued a formal report accusing the U.S. of "mass and flagrant abuses of human rights" -- is clearly prepared for the type of fisticuffs last seen during the depths of the George W. Bush Administration.

Can one write off this clutch of anti-Western activity to domestic politics -- Putin singing a tune that he thinks plays well with Russian voters ahead of the March 4 election, in which he is seeking a return to the Kremlin for a third term? It seems more complicated than that -- Putin is playing to the gallery, but events outside Russia also are motivating him to behave at turns opportunistically; other times, they are causing him to lash out apprehensively.

Putin's energy gambit is an example of him acting on the opportunistic side, specifically in the realm where Russian politics frequently find animation -- in the construction, or blockage, of energy pipelines. In the current case, Putin has managed to seriously out-maneuver U.S. and European political leaders by advancing the prospects of South Stream, a proposed $21 billion natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, crossing underneath the Black Sea.

Read on

The dictator's playbook: You are a cosseted dictator in the world's most strategic place -- the hydrocarbon engine of the global economy -- but then a vegetable-seller sets himself on fire, and your life is suddenly upside down. How do you manage in this state of upheaval known as the Arab Spring? The response of the Middle East's king of kings -- Saudi Arabia's Abdullah -- is an attempt to stabilize not just himself, but the entire edifice of long-time U.S.-aligned Sunni autocrats who, among other things, worked with Washington to make peace with Israel, Neil MacFarquhar reports in the New York Times. The elderly Abdullah has sought to ease out Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh (street scene in Sana'a pictured above), shore up the Bahraini ruling family with both troops and cash, stabilize Egypt with some $4 billion, and fundamentally undermine Iran, which he sees as fomenting the trouble for example in Bahrain. Combined, Abdullah's actions are pro-monarchy, and self-serving -- the Saud family believes it is personally entitled to the country's wealth, and cannot imagine a world in which it does not rule that stretch of oil-rich sand.

We understand Abdullah -- who wants to lose power and fortune? But we also notice his agile hybridization of the dictator's playbook, the limited number of options open to autocrats whose people pour into the streets. Generally, an autocrat has two alternatives, which for ease of clarity we call the Karimov and Shevardnadze plays. The latter refers to the decision by Georgia's Eduard Shevardnadze to step down in the face of massive 2003 protests in his country; the former suggests the calculus of Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov, who in 2005 gunned down hundreds of protesters in the city of Andijan. In trying to persuade Saleh to leave, Abdullah is invoking Shevardnadze; in bolstering Bahrain's al-Khalifa family, he is giving voice to his inner Karimov.

Notwithstanding the cleverness, we see the Karimov play shining through in Abdullah's calculus, because what is this all about but reinforcing the hold of the Saud family itself?

Flashpoint alert: Oil rush on the South China Sea    Recall that last fall, China and Japan went to blows over an errant fisherman who rammed a Japanese naval cutter in the disputed, oil-rich waters of the East China Sea. In cutting off rare earth elements to Japan, China signaled yet again that it takes its ostensible rights to both the East and South China seas very seriously. Therefore, we ought to pay attention now that Vietnam and the Philippines are getting set to drill for oil in South China Sea waters claimed by Beijing. Bloomberg reports that Vietnam's oil partner, Talisman Energy, plans to begin drilling next year in the South China Sea; ExxonMobil intends to drill an exploratory well off of Vietnam's waters later this year; and the Philippines, with whom the United States has a defense treaty, plans to do similar exploration in the South China Sea. China's neighbors assert that often these claims are much closer to their own shores than to China's, but China has regularly dispatched ships to disrupt such oil work. Look for more such incidents in coming months.

Read on