Sunday, June 13, 2010 - 7:46 PM
Before Kyrgyzstan turned to Russia, it informally asked Washington for military assistance including a supply of rubber bullets to quell ethnic bloodletting in the south of the country, but was turned down, I am told by people privy to the situation. Russia says it may deploy troops if it's a collective regional decision.
Kyrgyz President Rosa Otunbayeva made the request of Washington for troops and rubber bullets after Kyrgyz and Uzbeks living in the city of Osh began to fight on Friday. She formally asked for Russian help yesterday, putting the timing of the request to the U.S. sometime in between.
A senior Obama administration official, speaking to me on condition of anonymity, denied that the U.S. has received any formal Kyrgyz request for military assistance.
To the degree that the fighting -- at least 100 people have already died and more than 1,000 have been injured in the fighting -- destabilizes the fragile Kyrgyz government, it's a security concern for the U.S., which maintains an important Air Force base near the capital of Bishkek that serves Afghanistan. In addition, Kazakhstan -- with its enormous oil, uranium, copper and other natural resources -- is right next door.
So in deferring to Russia for the security of its traditional backyard, Washington puts further distance between itself and Kyrgyzstan. It's another signal of Washington's policy reversal, known as "reset," in which the Obama administration is attempting to have a more cooperative relationship with Moscow than did the Bush administration.
Here's what the Obama administration official told me:
Unlike other scenarios, in terms of U.S.-Russian and U.S.-Soviet behavior in times of crisis, so far one is struck by the incredible amount of cooperation between our government and the government in Moscow. Because so far, we have the strong feeling that our interest and the Russian interest are aligned.
We hear privately that if we get to the moment that unavoidably there has to be troops, we will be doing it in a cooperative way, not a zero-sum way. We'd like the international community to be fully invested and supportive if military intervention happens.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has called a meeting tomorrow of the defense chiefs of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a regional body that in addition to Russia and Kyrgyzstan includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
I suppose it's interesting to hear about what was or was not requested of the US government. But perhaps there are other things to emphasize when looking at this story. I don't see any evidence that "Uzbeks and Kyrgyz are fighting" -- every report from the ground talks about pogroms by armed Kyrgyz against unarmed Uzbeks.
Hi Bakinets: Addressing your point on who is fighting whom, the reporting on the ground the last couple of days does suggest largely Uzbek victims. This long AP report includes details of fighting on both sides http://bit.ly/dfqxrt.
However, among the lessons of the post-Soviet ethnic uprisings is that they do not start from nowhere, at different times have different parties in ascendance, and are easily kindled (Nagorno-Karabakh 1988-1993; Osh 1990; Ingushetia 1992; Tajikistan 1992; Abkhazia 1993, and so on).
As for summons for help, I think it is in fact important to note who was called when. Kyrgyzstan is not in isolation, but is currently under geopolitical courtship.
Thanks for the note.
Of course they don't flare up out of nowhere, there is always a cause if not more than one. Case in point, the pogrom of Armenians in baku and surrounding region were in large part due to the Armenians of Karabakh (Artsakh) wanting to reunite with Armenia. Not only because Karabakh is Armenian land but also since stalin had placed Karabakh within azerbaijan in the 20s against the will of the majority in the enclave.
The case in Central Asia, is that Uzbeks have been traditionaly distrusted by the other ethnic groups in the region and partly because they are the most populous. Kyrgz are the closest with the Kazakhs both politically and genetically.
You couldn't be more wrong about interethnic dynamics in C.Asia
Bakinets, you may have all the upper-hand insight in the Nagorno-Karabakh situation, but your take on the Central Asian situation is more than that of an amateur.
Nobody here trusts Uzbeks any less than any other nationality in the region. Perhaps, all the ethnic groups somewhat distrust each other--and yes, there have been some historical minor disagreements between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan (and their respective people) regarding the border lines, but Uzbeks and Kyrgyz have coexisted (if not in perfect friendship, then at least in peace and solidarity) for tens of years on the territories of all Central Asian states, so no--this is NOT a sheer, natural and spontaneous interethnic clash.
It is precisely what most people now in Kyrgyzstan understand it is--it's brutal provocation of both sides to incite ethnic genocide and hatred to achieve a third party's political ambitions (namely, Bakiyev's bloodthirsty revenge for being overthrown in April). There's nothing more to it. People of all ethnicities (Kyrgyz, Uzbeks, Russians, Tatars, etc.), who have lived together for years in the South, are now barricading their villages/houses together, sharing food and shelter, the Kyrgyz and Russian are hiding Uzbeks from the bandits, etc. The local populations of different ethnicities are NOT fighting against and with one another. It's the hired mercinary bandits and killers from who knows where; Locals say they don't know any of these people who come in and shoot and burn everyone and everything--without regard to who it is--steel and burn the belongings and go on crazed/drugged/drunk rampages, raping and killing. By now they've instigated enough of Kyrgyz and Uzbeks youth against each other and are now reaping the desired results.
It's wrong and dangerous to make such broad and uneducated statements because most unenlightened people will believe you when you say that this is a long-standing ethnic war. It's anything BUT that. Trust me.
My preceding response was addressed not to you, but to AR (above).
Kyrgyzstan's Interim Government has already officially refuted the validity of your article--according to their official statement, no formal or informal requests for any aid has been made to the US by the Interim Govertment.
see here: http://kyrgyz-el.kg/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=414&Itemid=1
Responses to First-hand, Boy Scout, AR
First Hand: The U.S. Embassy has also denied my report that the U.S. ambassador in Kyrgyzstan is being replaced; that does not make it untrue. My sources are solid.
Boy Scout: You raise salient points. Something must have triggered the violence. Let's watch and see what comes out. Nothing is clear at the moment.
AR: Not to mention the Armenian violence against Azeris living in Armenia and Karabakh.
Thanks for the comments.
"The previous riots resulted in the ascendancy of today's interim government have started a mere week after the U.S. bases were banned from the country and its servicemen were made to leave within a 10-days term."
This is absolutely not true. No decisions regarding the US base (there is only one) were made in the days leading up to the coup at the beginning of April. And, certainly, no news organization that's been reporting on the events in Kyrgyzstan has reported that (in English or Russian.)
Ethnic tension in Kyrgyzstan is nothing new. Previous ethnic conflict in Osh, while Kyrgyzstan was a part of the Soviet Union, was only brought under control after Soviet troops arrived on scene. Just recently, there was trouble in Jalalabad at the end of May. Before that, there were attacks against other ethnic minorities in the north of the country in April. In recent years, there has been ethnic violence against Kurds and Dungans in the north of the country. I could list numerous other examples. This didn't come out of nowhere.
February 15, 2006
Economic disparities driving inter-ethnic conflict
http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=33728
April 26, 2009
http://www.rferl.org/content/Eighty_Detained_Following_Interethnic_Tensions_In_Kyrgyzstan/1616297.html
The more I think about what you've written about the events in Kyrgyzstan since Bakiev was forced out, the more I think that you are being played. I recently read a book that a foreign service officer wrote about the events in Taiwan after the end of WW2. In it, he describes an incident that the Nationalist government used to give the impression that they had "face" (power, respect). They knew an American diplomat was due to rotate out, so the Nationalists put out the story that they were displeased with this diplomat, had complained to Washington, Washington agreed, and the diplomat was being recalled. The embassy denied it, but the guy left (as planned), so the denial seemed fake. When I read that, I immediately thought of what you'd written.
I don't know the American ambassador, so I don't know if she's as incompetent as you made out, but she has been there a while. Also, you don't have enough to get that story published in a forum where an editor would demand confirmation, but since you wrote it, others can (and have) repeated it ("It's been reported that ...").
So much of what you've written recently about Kyrgyzstan seems to be the equivalent of "So, Mr. Senator, how long have you been cheating on your wife?" You don't have proof, but now you can write the headline, "Senator Denies Affair".
You were so gung-ho about how the US should have been supporting the opposition (now the provisional government), but look at them now. Don't you think you should start questioning the veracity of your source(s)?
Steve,
There's a big difference between asking for rubber bullets and asking for troops. And you glide over the specifics of this.
First you say "asked Washington for military assistance including a supply of rubber bullets", then "made the request of Washington for troops and rubber bullets after Kyrgyz and Uzbeks living in the city of Osh" and later on Twitter you tiny-cize this to "Russia didn't get asked first for troops for Kyrgyzstan -- Washington did".
But...what have your really got on this? Troops? Really, Steve? What kind of troops? From where? How did Roza think that would work, exactly? To do what?
The problem with this kind of sensational story (even if it turns out to be technically validated) in the fog of an ethnic cleansing like this is that it fuels the idea that the U.S. is the primary or even only evil actor here by being "asked first" (gasp!!!) and distracts mightily from the fact that Russia has already long been in the region and has a base *too* and has long talked about putting in a second one led by the CSTO which it controls, and sent a 'limited contingent" to protect its base and Russian families . Not to mention that before all this Russia actively pressured Kyrgyzstan to expel the Americans from Manas, and nearly succeeded in doing so. Somehow, that's all forgotten in the rush to broadcast the evil Amerika story.
I'd also really like to believe your happy stories that Kyrgyz and Russians are banding together and sheltering Uzbeks, and maybe that is happening, but I'm not hearing that from Uzbeks. I'm not there and I don't pretend to have a special insight, but I do follow all the direct reports very closely and try to sift through what's being said. Yes, it appears that outside agitators, likely instigated by Bakiyev, set upon Uzbek neighbourhoods in an orchestrated fashion. Yet there are other dynamics that they then regretably set in motion which does include just garden-variety ethnic hatred on both sides, looting, rampaging, opportunism, etc. The reason why the Bakiyevtsy can even successfully stage such a provocation is that they know they can light a tinder box in this region.
You can keep going on harping about "who was summoned when" and talking coyly of "courtship" but it's also clearly not an area of the world where the U.S. will ever rule or even significantly influence events. What will most likely happen is a creeping CSTO mission with heavy Russian and Uzbekistan involvement. I'll be looking for you to dig for the same kind of sources and deny the same kind of implausible denials when that happens.
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