Posted By Steve LeVine Share

Oil prices have fallen again today, and among the victims of a U.S.-led intervention in the market are OPEC and oil speculators. But will they be for long? The answer is probably no.

As a reminder, a multinational cast of co-conspirators has opened the spillgates of their strategic petroleum reserves, adding 60 million barrels of oil onto the world market. The reason is economic: Oil prices were already declining, but the consensus is that they would have increased substantially toward the end of the year, with no end in sight, because of Chinese oil demand and constrained supplies, hence complicating the sluggish global economic recovery. Nobuo Tanaka, head of the International Energy Agency, which along with the United States coordinated the intervention with China, India, and Saudi Arabia, along with Japan, Germany, South Korea, and others, said the extra oil is intended to tide over the market until a planned Saudi increase in oil production takes effect.

Yet, as we've discussed, what we'll probably see in response to the intervention -- once traders get up from the mat and dust off their britches -- is a case of brinkmanship. Traders will redouble their bets in the futures casino, gambling correctly that neither the Obama administration nor other members of the Energy Information Agency will have the stomach to continue for long emptying out their reserves onto the market.

This is a wily market. Already U.S. regulators are investigating the possibility that some traders caught wind of the move before it happened and perhaps unlawfully profited, writes Jerry Dicolo at the Wall Street Journal.

A lot of observers have been impressed with the U.S. move. The New York Times, for instance, editorializes that it could provide a boost for the U.S. economy. At the Financial Times, James Macintosh writes that it's meant as a new global economic kick-start since the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest $600 billion pump-primer, known as "QE2" -- or a massive purchase of Treasury bonds whose impact is to lubricate the weak economy -- ends Thursday. And oil analyst Peter Beutel said the move "could work" in terms of helping the economy.

But at Deutsche Bank, oil analyst Paul Sankey said the United States has effectively injected itself into the equation as another speculator, and the result will not be as intended. "Every oil market comment from the White House will [now] become a market-moving event," Sankey writes in a note to clients. "In short, this move has added to oil markets' fear of volatility.

Oil analyst Stephen Schork told Bloomberg that the move will backfire and in fact convince traders that there is something very wrong in the market, which will be reason for them to push prices back up.

One big point is that it's highly unlikely that anyone is going to buy much of the offered-up barrels either from the SPRs or the Saudis, as David Bird and Ben Lefebvre write at the WSJ -- the market is satiated, and stockpiles overflowing. Instead, both the U.S.-led and Saudi interventions are more symbolic gestures -- a message to underscore the point, even for the hardheaded traders, that the market is fully supplied and that there is no reason for them to keep pushing up prices.

But in the end, traders will push up prices. Look for such a move toward the end of the year or the beginning of 2012.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

 

JOHNGEORGE

2:56 AM ET

June 28, 2011

oil pricing

this is a scam! the oil companies, showing 44 billion in profits the very first quarter of this year, and the senate, congress and the president, who the oil companies backed in their elections along with kickback to all of them, are scamming the americans for just sheer price gouging! this is how big government works for you! all elected officials are liars and crooks! i'm 60 yrs. old and i've seen it all before and, along with the most crooked of them all the bush family, the oil companies and elected officials are hand in hand on screwing you out of every penny they can get! did you know that china is bragging that in 5 years they will own the united states? thats how much the feds have borrowed from them just to stay afloat! the government is to big and out of control! oil prices are the same way! our leaders have betrayed every american, excluding the moslems they brought here and the mexicans that bush and fox, the mex pres. made a deal to break the backs of the middle class and they succeeded haven't they? thats how low down our government really is and now the ones running, except ron paul, are just exactly like what we have right now! don't you think it's time for a new labor party?

 

FREUDE BUD

12:49 AM ET

June 29, 2011

this reminds me of the chief

this reminds me of the chief economist at PIMCOs comments, as if OECD governments have moved the oil markets before by their every word. i think the key here is whether the oil release will be light sweet. if it's light sweet then it more than replaces the volumes lost from libya. that should have a strong and lasting effect on both benchmarks as we pass through the height of the driving season and into fall. by the time the release is over front month will be october 2011. notwithstanding china's drought-driven demand for diesel prices should go down, i'd wager.

 

MUTT3003

12:06 PM ET

June 29, 2011

Speculators

So everybody and their brother knows the problem is speculation, but nothing gets done. Only one reform is needed, require delivery. Game over. Don't the money whores have enough ways to screw the world? Let's take all commodities out of the game.

 

SCOOP

8:17 PM ET

June 29, 2011

Price was already going BEFORE intervention...

Commodities Watch: The Coming End to QE2
by 24/7 Wall St, 3 June, 2011

"Today’s commodities watch offers some thoughts about the coming end of the Federal Reserve’s QE2 program and the effect that will have on commodity prices. One could make a pretty good argument that the near-meteoric rise in some commodity prices which began late last summer were at least partly due to the $600 billion that the US Federal Reserve Bank decided to spend on buying US Treasuries. One could also argue that a substantial piece of that $600 billion was poured into commodities markets, especially oil, silver, gold, and copper.bWhat is likely to happen now that QE2 is nearing its termination date of June 30th?"

 

AARKY

10:39 PM ET

June 29, 2011

The Speculators Did it!

Most readers of FP know that the speculators and hedge funders manipulate the oil prices and boost the price to 30-40% above it's fair market value. The oil companies have gone along for the ride and made that extra profit without any expense. The Republicans will slit their wrists before they even mention the word SPECU---What?? The Democrats in Congress take the prize for gutlessness in not calling out the Republicans on this issue. The Republicans know what's going on but then accuse the Democrats of not drilling faster and faster. This legalized robbery was permitted when Republicans (actually Enron lawyers wrote the bill) managed to get Clinton to sign, "The Commodities Modernization Act of 2000" which allowed hedge funds and speculators to run wild. The commodities markets need re-regulated to require that only end users can sign futures contracts to buy or sell commodities. I personally would prefer the old Soviet method of solving the problem. All those firing squads and dead bodies are a bit messy, but the fear factor does bring discipline.

 

Steve LeVine is the author of The Oil and the Glory and a longtime foreign correspondent.

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