Posted By Steve LeVine Share

Is there an exaggerated quality to the extraordinary projections and tens of billions of dollars pouring into shale gas, the newly available fuel that has shaken up markets and geopolitics? The answer is yes -- estimates for global shale gas reserves and future production are all but certainly over the top; likewise, the world's major energy companies -- ExxonMobil, Shell, Total, Sinopec, Statoil, and so on -- have probably committed excessive sums to this new source of energy.

Are we surprised? The answer is no -- students of hydrocarbon bonanzas know that, going back to the 19th-century frenzies of Baku and Pennsylvania, reserve assertions in the heat of the boom are not reliable. Such outbreaks of exuberance, regardless of whether fundamentally legitimate, include con artists (hence suckers), cooked books (more suckers), and out-and-out fraud (ditto). In the Caspian era of the 1990s, for instance, the Clinton administration, relying on lobbying reports from Amoco, justified a supercharged policy effort with estimates of 200 billion barrels of oil; the actual figure as of today is closer to 50 billion barrels. Yet companies and individual investors proceed anyway because they do not want to potentially miss out.

Which is what makes one puzzled by the war-like reaction to two long, ambitious, but fairly run-of-the-mill pieces in the New York Times ("Insiders Sound an Alarm Amid a Natural Gas Rush" and "Behind Veneer, Doubt on Future of Natural Gas") by Ian Urbina. In 5,300 words, plus a splash of leaked memos and emails, Urbina reports that U.S. natural gas prices are too low to justify much of the drilling and that companies have been possibly permitted by the Securities and Exchange Commission to overstate their gas reserves (the latter by far the best of the three pieces). Today, Urbina adds a piece with federal lawmakers calling for an investigation.

I have weighed in on how the very real volumes of shale gas being extracted from Texas, Oklahoma, and elsewhere are already transforming geopolitics, weakening Russia's hold on Europe, for instance. Yet we also know about the nightmare (for drillers) of low natural gas prices (this piece by Jack Smith at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram is excellent). The industry's full potential is being put in jeopardy by the interesting PR policies of industry hands like Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon (above left, with Jack Nicklaus). In addition, as noted above, wise hands have understood they must discount promotional estimates and characterizations by the shale gas marching band.

Yet Urbina seemed to strike a sensitive nerve. McClendon issued a special statement in which he said Urbina is "obviously motivated by an anti-natural gas agenda," and "chose not to interview a single reliable source." Similarly, the ultra-sober Michael Levi at the Council on Foreign Relations dismissed the pieces as just another salvo in the Times' "war on shale gas." The Energy Information Administration released an explanatory letter it had written to Urbina in advance of publication. Over at Forbes, Christopher Helman, calling Urbina's reporting "absurd on its face," posed the question, "Would drillers be investing billions a year in new wells if they weren't getting some return out of it?" (Answer: yes. The reason is that many of the leases require drilling in order to keep possession of the fields).

So what is going on with this storm? Is it a slow news cycle? Do we have a Shakespearean denial? Parenthetically, one observes that the much-reported demise of the impact of mainstream newspapers is premature. More to the point, shale gas may be exaggerated, but it is being produced in substantial volumes. And it is shaking up the status quo.

Ultimately, we get a fairly mundane conclusion. Which is that, with much at stake, booms tend to make people hot under the collar.

Getty Images

 

CASEATTHEBAT

4:54 PM ET

June 29, 2011

agree 100% with your stance, but too much credit given to Urbina

Hi Steve --

I fully agree with your take above in terms of the events unfolding in US shale simply the latest version of a cyclical boom-bust business, but I think you are giving far too much credit to Mr. Urbina. His stories had the potential to raising interesting questions about how a booming cycle brings about a herd mentality that heats up the marketplace and inevitably ends up suckering the late entrants and less sophisticated players. But his first article instead is premised nearly exclusively on passing off grandiose claims of Ponzi Schemes and an emerging breed of Enrons.

Given that the actual aftermath of Enron is still acute in the minds of Houstonians like myself and the term 'Ponzi Scheme' instantly conjures up images of Bernie Madoff and his horrific swindle, to throw around such terms is excessive and just flat out unprofessional for such a so-called investigative piece. To carry that thought through, one has to assume that all the companies participating in US shale -- independents, majors, international NOCs -- are in effectively in collusion to swindle investment dollars in a scheme that doesn't work all for what? To make a quick buck and go bankrupt? How absurd a proposition. Clearly Mr. Urbina needs to take Economics 101.

So I have to say I think the intense response seen to Mr. Urbina's stories come from the fact that the industry is already on the defensive with regard to fracking, so to be lumped in with Madoff and Enron is surely going to get the blood boiling. Furthermore, the NYT is supposed to be a well respected news organization, so for them to be publishing something that I think is in the ballpark of yellow journalism is just flat out irresponsible.

Casey

 

NICK GREALY

5:46 PM ET

June 29, 2011

Shale and its' detractor

It isn't so much as a raw nerve, as a "what on earth now?" moment from the industry. People aren't getting so much angry as exasperated.
The latest "revelations" are basically the work of a handful of people from one of the many constituencies disrupted by shale, in this case Peak Oil, a now discredited theory that remains popular among catastrophists of all political stripes.

Shale does shake up the status quo: Nuclear, renewables, coal, Russia, Peak Oil: All disrupted and have a vested interest in not so much putting out nutty stories but rubbing their hands as they appear.

Similarly the other articles in the Times have tried to appeal to the Green Tea Party conspiracy theorists. One problem well out of a hundred is unacceptable. Several dozen insinuations and not a single proof of poisoning out of tens of thousand of wells is...proof of a new Enron/Macondo Silent Spring? Where is the science in that?

I see absolutely no difference here between those who see "climategate" email story as proof of a scam or those who see the Times e-mails as shale wiki leaks as proof of ...a scam.

I work on public acceptance issues in the nascent European shale industry, and even more rarely, appear to be one of the few progressive green shale advocates on the planet.

I work with various European governments that someone like Aubrey McC, (not a client) might think of as being fromage eating surrender monkeys. But since I also used to work for and live in the City of New York, I find them refreshingly sane and logical. Exasperating as both can sometimes be, I can understand where each of them are coming from.

PlI'm struck by how multi-million dollar PR campaigns in the US have been derailed by what I call the Green Tea Party, chief convenor being Josh Fox of Gasland.

I'm the progressive remember. But the anti-shale Green Tea Party shares many of the same attributes as the Bachmann version:

Both are uncomfortable with "experts", for example. The right thinks that the overwhelming scientific proof of climate change is optional at best or a scientific plot similar to those who don't accept creationism. The left thinks that the overwhelming scientific fact of gas drilling as being safe should be ignored because they don't trust experts either, unless they are their experts. Scientific neutrality, or those annoying facts, can be swept away on a wave of magical thinking based on emotional entitlement. I really, really, really believe that fracking is poisoning me ,or that the earth was created in six days or that the earth is flat or that the world will end on September whatever. Because I really believe that, the press elevates feeling to beliefs and from there: next thing we know they turn into facts and otherwise lucid people start giving them credence.

Both sides are quick to grab any exception as being proof of a rule instead of being simply, well, an exception. The public in general, even in rational countries like France, is becoming more and more open to wild assertion instead of boring little things like facts
And where does much of that come from? From a media that is continually looking to create controversy, to paint any story as a simple black/white left/right green/driller narrative. Or, to simply dumb down stories to emotional narratives that can be described in one paragraph.

Please visit www.shalegasinfo.eu to attempt to inject some rationality.

 

EDWIN DRAKE

12:32 PM ET

June 30, 2011

Peak Oil isn't discredited. It's embraced by major super-powers.

Who ARE you to make such an outlandish claim that Peak Oil has supposedly been discredited?

Discredited?

Is that why the UK has appointed a Peak Oil Task Force?

Is that why the German military wrote a report on the dire urgency of political, social, and military unrest that the world faces in the next 5 years due to a coming era of oil scarcity?

Is that why the US Joint Forces Command issued a report naming oil scarcity as one of the chiefest threats to US national secutury?

Is that why the IEA declared that Peak Oil already hit 5 years ago, and that the full effects will begin to be felt around the globe between now and 2017?

Is that why Sir Richard Branson of Virgin Airlines described Peak Oil as "an emergency far worse than World War I and World War II put together"?

Is that why self-made billionaire Richard Rainwater said: "This is the first scenario I've seen where I question the survivability of mankind"?

Peak Oil is not only real, it's already arrived. Where have YOU been over the past 6 years when all of the above people and entities figured all this out? And have you taken the time to inform all of the above that they are wrong and you are right?

 

ROGER JACKSON

10:03 PM ET

June 29, 2011

Thanks for the moment of sanity

Steve --

Actually, I think you hit the nail on the head. I read the piece and didn't think it was The Times accusing shale gas of being a ponzi or "yellow journalism" or anything like that. I thought it was a just plain old-fashioned investigative reporting, taking a close look at some claims from an industry that is full of hyperbole, on both sides apparently.

The idea that the New York Times is somehow "anti-natural gas" is too conspiratorial to take seriously. To me, it looks like a decently researched piece, and a timely one at that. I suppose time will tell if this is a 'Shakesperian moment' but for right now, it seems to me like instead of getting distracted by a debate over whether shale gas is 'manna from heaven' or a 'ponzi scheme,' the focus should be on whether this gas will really be cheap to produce over the long run. Too much is depending on what we do today - I'm glad that there are some folks taking a sober look at these issues.

 

JAMESBURTON

10:05 AM ET

July 18, 2011

Shale gas will not be ignored!

There is a lot of money to be made in Shale Gas and where there is a lot of money there will be progress. Shale gas will open up a new sector in the energy industry and with it will create oil and gas jobs galore. We as consumers will finally see it as a good thing once we see benefit be gained from this new energy method.

 

Steve LeVine is the author of The Oil and the Glory and a longtime foreign correspondent.

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