Is chintziness another of Iran's failings?

Posted By Steve LeVine Monday, February 20, 2012 - 12:39 AM Share

Is Iran too cheap to haggle? Over the last week, we have observed the following out of Tehran: a halt of oil sales to the U.K. and France; threats against the West and its neighbors; and alleged bombings and bombing attempts in Georgia, India and Thailand. All of this has flowed out of Western-led efforts to choke off revenue from Iran's 2.5 million barrels a day of crude oil exports that last year totaled about $100 billion.

As a result, oil traders bid up oil prices early today to a nine-month high for both the benchmark U.S. and European blends. They are betting on the prospect of fighting, primarily the possibility of an Israeli strike, and a violent and unpredictable chain reaction.

Will Iran offer up serious concessions to nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, who are currently in Tehran (pictured above, street scene in Tehran on Sunday)? If the record is an indication, Iran will stall. Meanwhile there is the danger of a miscalculation that, because of the U.S. presidential campaign, could force President Barack Obama -- despite his preference to press on sanctions -- to carry out a military attack. That's according to Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran export at the Carnegie Endowment who spoke with National Public Radio from Washington, D.C. Sadjadpour said:

According to the law of averages, if Iran continues to aspire to commit these acts of terror, at some point they're going to be successful. They are going to hit their target, and if they hit either a major American target abroad or they strike on American soil, I think it's going to be difficult for President Obama, in an election year, not to respond.

As of now, the sanctions appear to be gravely hurting Iran financially. Tehran is having trouble unloading about 500,000 barrels a day of its oil exports (about 23 percent of last year's figure), write the Financial Times' Javier Blas and Najmeh Bozorgmehr. Even China and India have not been willing to buy, Blas and Bozorgmehr report.

What is hobbling these sales? It could be that, until now, Iran has not appeared willing to cut its price, suggest Blas and Bozorgmehr. Iran -- facing a surprisingly successful effort to cut off its exit routes -- somehow doesn't grasp that business is different from politics; sharps will hold tight while the boa constricts its victim.

That is mystifying. True, Tehran would have to swallow lower revenue. But to the degree it does discount its crude, Iran would induce smugglers into assuming the time and risk to disguise and peddle it, and buyers into taking the gamble in purchasing it. It would manage to sell its oil production.

So why is Iran committing this unforced error? Is its nuclear development so advanced that it feels it can more or less wait out the sanctions? Or are we merely witnessing a couple of age-old maladies -- thrift and pride?

Behrouz Mehri AFP/Getty Images

EXPLORE:IRAN, OBAMA, OIL SANCTIONS

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GREATART

6:40 AM ET

February 20, 2012

IRAN

Humanity always needs someone or a group of someones to stir up the pot. Life here on Earth would be pretty dull if the occasion war didn't break out. By the way, WARS come and go, but what is left behind is humanity's treasure chest of technology. Wars and conflicts between humans are just as normal as humans having sex. Humanity, up this moment in time, required wars to create the technology to move humanity forward. If every human on the planet "got along" then humanity would still be living in caves. Humans need a reason to do just about anything and survival drives every human and human group on the planet.

Let's go the scoreboard: before World War Two the human population of the planet was about 2.5 billion. The war killed about 80 million humans, about 2.5% of the population. On the surface it seems like a disaster of monumental proportions. In reality, WWII spawned atomic power, a trip to the moon and medical advancements that were only a country doctor's dream. Today, 60 years later, the population is 7 billion, humans have constructed a space ship that actually left our solar system and we've mapped every gene in the human body. All directly contributed to the wars in the past 60 years.

So, let's the bombs fly and blood flow because who knows what cool gadgets will come of it. Just think about the billions of dollars being spent by the US governments in their secret bunkers to come up with new gadgets to defeat the "enemy du jour." Now what could be more fun than my IPHONE? I can't imagine, so I'll just have to wait until the next war is over.

GRANT

5:24 PM ET

February 20, 2012

Internal politics perhaps?

Internal politics perhaps? The more practical members of the Iranian government might be pressured by some domestic considerations, especially with recent conservative power struggles. Or it might be something that makes perfect sense to an Iranian but seems baffling to an American.

RKKA

10:31 AM ET

February 21, 2012

What nuclear development, Steve?

"Is its nuclear development so advanced that it feels it can more or less wait out the sanctions?"

I note that you weasel out of specifying what type of "nuclear development" Iran is undertaking. If you think it is for electricity generation, that's perfectly legal and the sanctions the USG demand are nothing but a power-play like the disastrous Iraq war, cheerled by scam artists or fools who gibbered about Saddam's WMD programs, just like they are now doing about Iran's.

If you think it is for nuclear weapons, say so, and show us the evidence.

HASTINGSJERICHO

6:18 PM ET

March 18, 2012

The war killed about 80

The war killed about 80 million humans, about 2.5% of the population. On the surface it seems like a disaster of monumental proportions. In reality, WWII spawned atomic power, a trip to the moon and medical advancements that were only a country doctor's dream. Today, 60 years later, the population is 7 billion, humans have constructed Denise Adams a space ship that actually left our solar system and we've mapped every gene in the human body. All directly contributed to the wars in the past 60 years.